Saturday, October 15, 2005

GD capsule 5

Theme: Stock market

Is this Bull Run sustainable?

Yes, because

  • Strong earnings of the companies in the recent years will sustain the momentum

  • The index heavyweights like ONGC, ITC and RIL still trading at modest valuations

  • New FIIs from Japan have started investing only recently with a long term perspective

No, because
  • Oil prices if remain high for a longer period, may slow down the global economy and affect Indian share market

  • The risk of feds hiking the interest rates. Why? Interest rate hike may strengthen USD and investors may respond by pulling out money from emerging markets like India.

  • The weakening rupee is not helping the sentiment either

  • A lot of mid cap stocks are overvalued and the market should expect a correction

  • Indian market is overvalued when compared to other markets like south Korea, Brazil and South Asian tigers

Conclusion: The only thing that’s certain about share market is that it’s uncertain. So both schools of thought are valid and good fodder for GD

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